Carlos Rodríguez pointed to Milea’s fiscal policy and warned that “the best time to get out of the trap has already passed”
Economist Carlos Rodriguez warned this Friday about the sustainability of the government’s fiscal program Javier Milea and the risks that Treasury deleveraging could cause market stress with a rise in inflation that could end up being an “electoral disaster” for the ruling party in 2026. He also argued that “the time to get out of the trap has passed”.
Carlos Menem’s former economic policy secretary and Milei’s “chief adviser” during the election campaign lectured on economic realities at CEMA University, the study house of which he is the founding rector.
Rodríguez pointed out that what the government claims was a “BCRA cleanup” actually had to do with transfer of the debt of the accounting unit to the state treasury which did not mean a “real” decrease in the fiscal deficit. He also referred to the result of the tender that the Ministry of Finance faced this Thursday.
“Lecaps 7 billion were due. Only 5 billion signed up. The banks did not extend the principal. The state treasury is missing 2 billion dollars. We will see how they cover it because it will be monetary expansion,” the economist said.
“In this scenario of recession as an economic policy, I see an electoral disaster for 2025. The risk is that Kirchnerism will return,” warned Carlos Rodríguez of CEMA University.
“I have always been against the Ministry of Economy being run by a group of financiers. “Sterilization of obligations is nonsense,” he noted, referring to the team of the Minister of Economy. Luis Caputo.
In any case, he reviewed the history of consolidated public expenditure, that is, the nation and the provinces, in recent history. At this point he emphasized that Kirchnerism “started at 25 points of GDP and ended at 45 points of GDP”.
In this sense, the former economic policy secretary believed that this spending structure should be abolished. “Macri tried, but he had bad macroeconomic policies that led him to a recession and lost the election. Milei has fought everyone, so it will be difficult to reach agreements that bring public spending and taxes to a level that allows for sustainable economic growth,” he added.
“In this scenario of recession as an economic policy, I see an electoral disaster for 2025. The risk is the return of Kirchnerism. “I see reasonable people in federal Peronism and in PRO, but the results of Milea could lead to a very bad result next year,” he said.
“I think we’re in trouble because of Miley’s ways, not just her politics. This creates mistrust, a fight with the provinces, with the UN, with the opposition. Everything is very nice, but no one will lend you a dollar” (Carlos Rodríguez)
The economist also criticized the exchange rate policy that Caputo implemented. “The program that I presented to Milea at the time meant devaluation, but it had a reason. Now you have made an adjustment, but pensioners paid for it, not the financial sector. The government is imitating Martínez de Hoz’s plan, but only a plan because there were no reserves or deductions at the time,” he noted.
For Rodríguez, the best time to exit the stock was shortly after the price spike in December. “With this level of confusion, they can’t lift the controls. I’m not in favor of the stock by any means, but I also don’t want it to be removed at any cost,” he said.
Regarding investments, Milei’s former adviser noted that he was concerned about the president’s “forms.” “I think we’re in trouble because of Miley’s ways, not just her politics. This creates mistrust, a fight with the provinces, with the UN, with the opposition. Everything is very nice, but no one will lend you a dollar and now there is talk of waiting for a loan if they get to the elections,” he pointed out.