The moment of truth for election meddling: October is the month of mischief

Federal officials fighting foreign meddling in the upcoming election say they are entering perhaps the most dangerous period of the campaign: By October, when the possibilities of illegal actions are greater and the time to react is shorter.

While the Russians are doing little to hide their support for former President Donald Trump, the Iranians (who are among Russia’s most important suppliers in the war in Ukraine) want to do everything they can to prevent him from returning to office, and are busy hacking his campaign and trashing everything , what they find, as well as a plot to assassinate him. This Friday, the Justice Department is expected to unveil charges against an Iranian hacking group closely tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for hacking the Trump campaign, along with attempts to attack the accounts of Washington journalists and others.

And China, expected to be a major player in the election, seems undecided about which candidate it hates more. So for now, Beijing is focusing on local contests and conducting influence operations that have the potential to undermine public confidence in the basic democratic process.

That was the gist of a series of recent private intelligence briefings for poll workers and members of Congress, in which US officials describe the crude and an often confusing battlefield where misinformation abounds and the risk of cyberattacks is greatest.

At first glance, these briefings seem straight out of the 2016 and 2020 handbooks. During one of these meetings on September 13, US officials claimed that Russia was still “the most active threat of foreign influence” and that other countries flooded the Internet with messages designed to “stir discord and undermine confidence in our electoral process.”

But as the briefing progressed, it became clear that what may unfold over the next month and a half involves some events that American election officials have never seen before.

Russia may be fully behind Trump, despite President Vladimir Putin’s claims to the contrary. But in this election cycle, their efforts could be partially nullified by Iran — Russia’s ally in almost everything these days — operating for the other side. China’s position is confusing. And on the election fraud front, there are new concerns centering on whether the techniques used by criminals to freeze the operations of American cities, businesses and hospitals could be used to similar effect as Americans prepare to vote.

“What will happen in the next two months will be a violent attack”said independent Maine Sen. Angus King, who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. The senator added that foreign powers “are becoming more active, more aggressive.”

There are several scenarios that worry US officials. Although the election processes that will be used on November 5 appear to be more secure than in previous elections —97 percent of the votes cast will have some type of paper backup, making the recount much more reliable–Federal officials were considering locking down record-keeping systems, possibly in what might at first appear to be the kind of ransomware attacks that paralyzed utilities in Baltimore or Atlanta or that hit the Seattle airport.

There is concern that if it becomes difficult to register voters in the final weeks before the election, it could skew the results on November 5, or alternatively give room to seemingly pro-Trump election officials who have seized power in some key states. , such as Georgia and give them an excuse not to verify the vote.

Because of the threats, intelligence officials have stepped up their classified and unclassified briefings, including a closed-door session of senators on Wednesday. The officials also held a highly classified briefing for the House Intelligence Committee last week that quickly sparked controversy as Republicans raised questions about intelligence on Russian intentions, according to officials briefed on the meeting.

The complaints built on past criticism from Republicans, as Trump has disputed U.S. intelligence assessments of Russia and Putin and accused the FBI and U.S. intelligence agencies of falsifying narratives of Russian meddling.

This year is different because of the intensity with which the U.S. government is warning about potential election threats, hoping that a little prior education will reduce the influence foreign actors can have on Election Day or any recount. This is a major change from eight years ago, when it took months for the Obama administration to formally name and indict Russian actors for meddling in the election, which happened only after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which has primary federal authority to help states defend election systems, said the U.S. government is doing a much more sophisticated job this year to ensure citizens are informed. “about what these actors do and how they do it.”

Regardless of who foreign powers favor, they share common goals, according to Easterly.

“The two main goals are to undermine American confidence in the security of our elections and our democratic institutions and to sow partisan discord,” he said in an interview. “These are the two goals of all our foreign adversaries”stated

During a Senate intelligence hearing last week, lawmakers asked representatives of Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet, the parent company of Google and YouTube, about steps they are taking to defend against foreign influence.

Virginia Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, the committee’s leader, said foreign adversaries “are more motivated than ever to interfere in our elections.”

US support for Ukraine under a Democratic government means Russia has a lot to lose in the November election.

“Putin understands that influencing public opinion and shaping elections in the United States is a cheap way to erode Western support for Ukraine and weaken the United States’ standing in the world,” he said.

In their latest public briefing this week, US intelligence officials announced that Russia and Iran are using generative artificial intelligence technology to bolster their attempts to influence elections. Intelligence officials said the use of artificial intelligence was not revolutionary, but rather allowed foreign powers to produce better material faster.

Intelligence officials added that Russia may have used artificial intelligence along with standard editing tools to create fake versions of speeches by Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, adding words she did not say in what sounds like her voice.

Still, the use of artificial intelligence in video is still difficult to pull off, and its less sophisticated uses are relatively easy to identify. Because of this, Russia continues to use fake videos from the past with fake actors and conspiracies to spread some of its messages.

© The New York Times 2024.